Democrats face massive losses in tomorrow's midterm election. Based upon our generic ballot polling and an analysis of individual races, we project that Nancy Pelosi's party will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House, putting the GOP firmly in the majority. Republicans will also win at least 25 of the 37 Senate elections...
There will also be a lot more Republican governors in office come January... A common theme in all the races is that white, working-class Democrats who tended to vote for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008 are prepared to vote for Republicans.
But none of this means that Republicans are winning. The reality is that voters in 2010 are doing the same thing they did in 2006 and 2008: They are voting against the party in power.
This is the continuation of a trend that began nearly 20 years ago. In 1992, Bill Clinton was elected president and his party had control of Congress. Before he left office, his party lost control. Then, in 2000, George W. Bush came to power, and his party controlled Congress. But like Mr. Clinton before him, Mr. Bush saw his party lose control.
That's never happened before in back-to-back administrations. The Obama administration appears poised to make it three in a row. This reflects a fundamental rejection of both political parties.
More precisely, it is a rejection of a bipartisan political elite that's lost touch with the people they are supposed to serve. Based on our polling, 51% now see Democrats as the party of big government and nearly as many see Republicans as the party of big business. That leaves no party left to represent the American people.
Voters today want hope and change every bit as much as in 2008. But most have come to recognize that if we have to rely on politicians for the change, there is no hope. At the same time, Americans instinctively understand that if we can unleash the collective wisdom and entrepreneurial spirit of the American people, there are no limits to what we can accomplish.
In this environment, it would be wise for all Republicans to remember that their team didn't win, the other team lost. Heading into 2012, voters will remain ready to vote against the party in power unless they are given a reason not to do so.
Elected politicians also should leave their ideological baggage behind because voters don't want to be governed from the left, the right, or even the center. They want someone in Washington who understands that the American people want to govern themselves.
Rasmussen's piece is both a rebuke of the past three Presidential administrations and a stern warning to the new Republicans who will descend upon Washington in the coming months.
The warning? Do not assume that your victory, however "landslide", is indicative of a voter mandate. This was a major mistake made by George W. Bush after his razor's-edge re-election victory over Sen. John Kerry in 2004, and his party suffered horribly for it. The Republican "recovery" this year has come not because they've changed the way they've done business, but because the Democrats made a similar error following the 2008 elections.
With our increasingly polarized Congress, it will become more necessary than ever for the extremists in power to reach across the aisle. But if past is predictor, the dominant ego that pushes both parties toward their extremes will not allow for cooperation. For the foreseeable future, every two years will see a rejection of the party in power, until one of the parties in power changes the way they do business. The voters' true mandate is clear: figure it out, or you'll always be short-timers.
[Wall Street Journal]
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