Well, I wanted to hold off on this one until Opening Day, but it seems like MLB wants to ruin Opening Day by having 3 or 4 Opening Days every year. So while my Red Sox don't start things until next Thursday, the Mariners and A's have already "officially" started the MLB season over in Japan, which I guess is a good thing.
Regardless of MLB's antics, I love the start of baseball season, and I welcome it as usual with John Fogerty's "Centerfield". Go Sox, and Happy Weekend, people.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Mega Millions: should you take the lump sum or the annuity?
If you're thinking of playing Mega Millions for the massive jackpot this weekend (don't bother, by the way, I've already got this thing locked up), there are some important things you should think about first. Yes, "what should I name my boat?" is a very important question, but before you get there you should probably figure out whether to take the lump sum or the annuity. I'm glad you asked. Here are my tips. If you're lazy or hate math, here's the Cliff Notes: take the lump sum.
According to the Mega Millions website, the currently-advertised jackpot of $540 million will result in a lump-sum payment of $389 million. That's cash in hand, today. Or, you can spread that $540 million out over 26 years, pulling in about $20.77 million per year from now until 2037. In essence, by taking the annuity, you're lending your money to the lottery administrators for 25 years.
So what kind of interest rate are you getting for being such a generous lender? Without boring you too much with the math, when I compared the lump sum to the annuity, it came out to an implied interest rate of about 2.84%. With U.S. Treasuries for a similar term (we'll look at the 30-year bond) currently yielding around 3.25%, this seems like a pretty bad deal for the lottery winner (though a very good deal for the lottery administrators).
The other thing to take into consideration is taxes. By any historical standard, tax rates (especially on large amounts of income) are at staggeringly low levels. With government deficits and debt reaching nightmarish proportions, it's pretty much a given that this rate will rise (possibly significantly) at some point over the next 25 years. Therefore, it's to your benefit to generate all of the income (and pay all of the taxes) today, rather than waiting and paying some of those taxes in the future when rates are likely to be higher.
When I ran through the numbers, I found that if tax rates were to remain at 35% for the first 10 years of your annuity payments, and then rise relatively modestly to 45% for the remainder of the 25 years, the implied interest rate on your generous lending would drop to about 2.02%, an incredibly paltry return. If those tax rates increased to 55% in Year 10, your implied interest rate would drop all the way down to 1.08%.
When you consider interest and taxes, it becomes clear that it's not really in anyone's best interest to lend out long-term money right now (hey, maybe that's why nobody can get a mortgage these days...), least of all to the government, who might want to take a bigger bite in future years. So take the lump sum, and try your best not to blow all your many millions in one place. I will try my best to take my own advice when I win this thing later tonight.
According to the Mega Millions website, the currently-advertised jackpot of $540 million will result in a lump-sum payment of $389 million. That's cash in hand, today. Or, you can spread that $540 million out over 26 years, pulling in about $20.77 million per year from now until 2037. In essence, by taking the annuity, you're lending your money to the lottery administrators for 25 years.
So what kind of interest rate are you getting for being such a generous lender? Without boring you too much with the math, when I compared the lump sum to the annuity, it came out to an implied interest rate of about 2.84%. With U.S. Treasuries for a similar term (we'll look at the 30-year bond) currently yielding around 3.25%, this seems like a pretty bad deal for the lottery winner (though a very good deal for the lottery administrators).
The other thing to take into consideration is taxes. By any historical standard, tax rates (especially on large amounts of income) are at staggeringly low levels. With government deficits and debt reaching nightmarish proportions, it's pretty much a given that this rate will rise (possibly significantly) at some point over the next 25 years. Therefore, it's to your benefit to generate all of the income (and pay all of the taxes) today, rather than waiting and paying some of those taxes in the future when rates are likely to be higher.
When I ran through the numbers, I found that if tax rates were to remain at 35% for the first 10 years of your annuity payments, and then rise relatively modestly to 45% for the remainder of the 25 years, the implied interest rate on your generous lending would drop to about 2.02%, an incredibly paltry return. If those tax rates increased to 55% in Year 10, your implied interest rate would drop all the way down to 1.08%.
When you consider interest and taxes, it becomes clear that it's not really in anyone's best interest to lend out long-term money right now (hey, maybe that's why nobody can get a mortgage these days...), least of all to the government, who might want to take a bigger bite in future years. So take the lump sum, and try your best not to blow all your many millions in one place. I will try my best to take my own advice when I win this thing later tonight.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Clip of the Week
Ohhhh, decisions, decisions... we've got all sorts of options for Clip of the Week this week, just the way I always like it.
In the world of sports, we've got this awesome dunk from the NCAA tourney, this amazing goal from the English Premier League, and this ridiculous full-court shot by Marcus Camby (which of course didn't count, much like this play and this play).
You also know how much I love animal videos, and this week I came across this video of the "mimic octopus" (quite possibly the world's coolest creature), this video of a cat getting loose at a basketball game, and this awesome trailer/ad for the Boston Bruins, featuring their bear mascot (who is awesome, and featured in my favorite ad of all time).
Also, this can't really be categorized, but this video cracked me up (really, Dad, you're not gonna help the kid out, just gonna focus on filming and wait for him to face plant? Good call...).
But ultimately, I had to give this week's honor to Batman, because his back story was too good to pass up. So for this week's clip, I give you Batman, just chilling in his Lambo on a Maryland highway.
In the world of sports, we've got this awesome dunk from the NCAA tourney, this amazing goal from the English Premier League, and this ridiculous full-court shot by Marcus Camby (which of course didn't count, much like this play and this play).
You also know how much I love animal videos, and this week I came across this video of the "mimic octopus" (quite possibly the world's coolest creature), this video of a cat getting loose at a basketball game, and this awesome trailer/ad for the Boston Bruins, featuring their bear mascot (who is awesome, and featured in my favorite ad of all time).
Also, this can't really be categorized, but this video cracked me up (really, Dad, you're not gonna help the kid out, just gonna focus on filming and wait for him to face plant? Good call...).
But ultimately, I had to give this week's honor to Batman, because his back story was too good to pass up. So for this week's clip, I give you Batman, just chilling in his Lambo on a Maryland highway.
Legislative Tourette's in NYC
A few weeks back, I introduced the concept of "legislative Tourette's" with respect to Los Angeles, which decided to make throwing footballs or frisbees on city beaches (or digging holes deeper than 18 inches) a fine-able offense. I took that as a ridiculous example of a local government overstepping its bounds and meddling where it really doesn't need to meddle.
But there's always more examples of that sort of thing, and New York City came along and made me shake my head once again. From the New York Post (yeah, yeah, I know, consider the source, but CNN was on this one too...):
I had a run-in with a German Shepherd when I was a little tyke, so should dogs be off-limits on my tests? I also once fell off my bicycle and scraped my knee, and also this one time when I was playing basketball with the other kids I took a shot and I missed and I still feel really bad about it. So please let's just not mention it, okay? Really, where does this all end?
Ultimately, I understand the concept that these administrators are going for, I really do. But it's pretty clear to most of us when these attempts to sanitize everything have simply gone too far. Education, if nothing else, should be designed to prepare students for the things that they are likely to encounter in life, out in "the real world".
Out there, Halloween does exist, people have birthdays (we even celebrate them with national holidays--which, if you think about it, should also be off-limits on these tests...), and you're going to encounter rich people, poor people, dancing people, dinosaur fossils, and maybe even an alien or two. Sheltering our young students from these realities serves no real purpose, and could even be counter-productive to their long-term development.
Yes, I know, this article isn't saying that students won't be taught about these sorts of things, only that they won't be tested on them--but is that really such a fundamental difference? This whole thing is an utter waste of time and resources, and our administrators need to focus their attention elsewhere--their ridiculous misplacement of priorities is a huge part of the reason that our nation's academic performance continues to flounder.
[NY Post]
But there's always more examples of that sort of thing, and New York City came along and made me shake my head once again. From the New York Post (yeah, yeah, I know, consider the source, but CNN was on this one too...):
In a bizarre case of political correctness run wild, educrats have banned references to “dinosaurs,” “birthdays,” “Halloween” and dozens of other topics on city-issued tests.
That’s because they fear such topics “could evoke unpleasant emotions in the students.”
Dinosaurs, for example, call to mind evolution, which might upset fundamentalists; birthdays aren’t celebrated by Jehovah’s Witnesses; and Halloween suggests paganism.
Even “dancing’’ is taboo, because some sects object. But the city did make an exception for ballet...
Words that suggest wealth are excluded because they could make kids jealous. Poverty is likewise on the forbidden list.
Also banned are references to divorces and diseases, because kids taking the tests may have relatives who split from spouses or are ill...
“This is standard language that has been used by test publishers for many years and allows our students to complete practice exams without distraction,” said a Department of Education spokeswoman, insisting it’s not censorship...
The city asks test companies to exclude “creatures from outer space,” celebrities and excessive TV and video-game use — items that are OK elsewhere.
Homes with swimming pools and computers are also unmentionables here — because of economic sensitivities — while computers in the school or in libraries are acceptable.
City officials also specified that test makers shouldn’t include items that are potentially “disrespectful to authority or authority figures,” or give human characteristics to animals or inanimate objects.I'm sorry, but WHAT IN THE HELL IS GOING ON HERE?? I mean really, once you've corrected for every single thing that any student could conceivably be "sensitive" to, what is left? Anything?
I had a run-in with a German Shepherd when I was a little tyke, so should dogs be off-limits on my tests? I also once fell off my bicycle and scraped my knee, and also this one time when I was playing basketball with the other kids I took a shot and I missed and I still feel really bad about it. So please let's just not mention it, okay? Really, where does this all end?
Ultimately, I understand the concept that these administrators are going for, I really do. But it's pretty clear to most of us when these attempts to sanitize everything have simply gone too far. Education, if nothing else, should be designed to prepare students for the things that they are likely to encounter in life, out in "the real world".
Out there, Halloween does exist, people have birthdays (we even celebrate them with national holidays--which, if you think about it, should also be off-limits on these tests...), and you're going to encounter rich people, poor people, dancing people, dinosaur fossils, and maybe even an alien or two. Sheltering our young students from these realities serves no real purpose, and could even be counter-productive to their long-term development.
Yes, I know, this article isn't saying that students won't be taught about these sorts of things, only that they won't be tested on them--but is that really such a fundamental difference? This whole thing is an utter waste of time and resources, and our administrators need to focus their attention elsewhere--their ridiculous misplacement of priorities is a huge part of the reason that our nation's academic performance continues to flounder.
[NY Post]
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Quote of the Week (cartoon edition)
It's been a little while since I turned my Quote of the Week over to the land of the animated, and this week seems like as good a time as any to renew the practice. If you've read me often, you'll know that the flagrant misuse of statistics (particularly for political gain) irks me like nothing else. That's why this cartoon made me chuckle. Okay, fine, laugh out loud, whatever, I'm a nerd, at least I own it.
Happy Tuesday.
Happy Tuesday.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Tacocopter? Yes, please
I occasionally speak to people who think that I'm too much of a critic, too much of a pessimist, a "downer", if you will. For what it's worth, I'm not really a natural pessimist, nor am I pessimistic about all things. I happen to think we live in an absolutely amazing time, where technological possibility is so incredible as to almost be overwhelming (I can communicate with somebody thousands of miles away, instantly, using only my thumbs! I can work from home, wherever I want home to be!), and the prospects for the future in some ways couldn't be brighter. I wouldn't trade being alive today for being alive in any other time--I like my technology too much.
It's just that I think that the existing economic and political paradigms that we've lived under for the past several decades are hopelessly broken in fundamental ways, and that these will need to be torn down (probably in a disorderly manner, because there's rarely any other way) in order for future generations to fully enjoy and appreciate the possibility that these technological advances afford. Furthermore, I think that such a collapse is not only necessary, but inevitable. Make sense? Alright, cool. Because this is freaking awesome.
As I said before, I really couldn't be more excited to see what kind of stuff the next several decades bring in terms of technological advancement--if the last two decades are any guide, I literally can't even imagine what things will look like by 2035. I just hope we're all ready to embrace the changes that technology can so rapidly bring--this is no time to be clinging to old, broken paradigms, however good they may have been to us in the past. We need to change along with our technology, and those changes won't always be so easy.
[Huffington Post]
It's just that I think that the existing economic and political paradigms that we've lived under for the past several decades are hopelessly broken in fundamental ways, and that these will need to be torn down (probably in a disorderly manner, because there's rarely any other way) in order for future generations to fully enjoy and appreciate the possibility that these technological advances afford. Furthermore, I think that such a collapse is not only necessary, but inevitable. Make sense? Alright, cool. Because this is freaking awesome.
The Internet is going wild for Tacocopter, perhaps the next great startup out of Silicon Valley, which boasts a business plan that combines four of the most prominent touchstones of modern America: tacos, helicopters, robots and laziness.
Indeed, the concept behind Tacocopter is very simple, and very American: You order tacos on your smartphone and also beam in your GPS location information. Your order -- and your location -- are transmitted to an unmanned drone helicopter (grounded, near the kitchen where the tacos are made), and the tacocopter is then sent out with your food to find you and deliver your tacos to wherever you're standing.
You pay online, so the tacos are simply dropped off at your feet by the drone helicopter, which then flies back to the restaurant to pick up its next order.That... is... AWESOME. I want two chicken tacos, delivered by a robot helicopter, now. Oh, but of course, there's a catch:
Well, put down your smartphones, because here comes some bad news: The launch of Tacocopter... is being blocked by the U.S. government.
"Current U.S. FAA regulations prevent ... using UAVs [Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, like drones] for commercial purposes at the moment," [company cofounder Star] Simpson said over Gchat. "Honestly I think it's not totally unreasonable to regulate something as potentially dangerous as having flying robots slinging tacos over people's heads ... [O]n the other hand, it's a little bit ironic that that's the case in a country where you can be killed by drone with no judicial review."
Simpson told HuffPost that because of the FAA's regulations -- as well as other minor problems, like navigating the treacherous terrain of an urban environment, keeping the food warm, finding a city map precise enough to avoid crashes 100 percent of the time, avoiding birds, balconies and telephone wires, delivering food to people indoors, delivering food to the right person, dealing with greedy humans who would just steal the Tacocopter as soon as it got to them, etc. -- the Tacocopter website exists more as a conversation starter about the future of food delivery (and delivery in general), as well as about the commercial uses of unmanned vehicles, than an actual startup plan or business.Boooooo, government. To be fair, this is one area where I think the government has a right to be a little wary of what's being proposed, for the reasons that the cofounders enumerated. Still, I think this idea is awesome, and I want to see what other stuff people come up with using drone/robot technology (stuff like this, for example).
As I said before, I really couldn't be more excited to see what kind of stuff the next several decades bring in terms of technological advancement--if the last two decades are any guide, I literally can't even imagine what things will look like by 2035. I just hope we're all ready to embrace the changes that technology can so rapidly bring--this is no time to be clinging to old, broken paradigms, however good they may have been to us in the past. We need to change along with our technology, and those changes won't always be so easy.
[Huffington Post]
Friday, March 23, 2012
Song of the Week(end)
Alright, yeah, so I'm not gonna get around to those two posts that I promised for today... can I make it up to you by giving you two Songs of the Week(end)? Cool, thanks.
We haven't done much rap here (except the Biggie tribute a couple of weeks ago), even though it's a significant portion of what I listen to on a daily basis. Let's change that. Your first Song of the Week(end) is from what I consider the best rap album of all time, A Tribe Called Quest's Midnight Marauders. I've always loved Tribe, and their tunes are always a great way to kick off a weekend.
Your second song is more recent, a song that I can't get out of my head this week. It's "So Good", the latest track from one of my current favorites, B.o.B. Have a good weekend, people. Happy Spring.
We haven't done much rap here (except the Biggie tribute a couple of weeks ago), even though it's a significant portion of what I listen to on a daily basis. Let's change that. Your first Song of the Week(end) is from what I consider the best rap album of all time, A Tribe Called Quest's Midnight Marauders. I've always loved Tribe, and their tunes are always a great way to kick off a weekend.
Your second song is more recent, a song that I can't get out of my head this week. It's "So Good", the latest track from one of my current favorites, B.o.B. Have a good weekend, people. Happy Spring.
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